conditional support

Today's New York Times has one of its trademark overly-long (politespeak: in-depth analysis) articles on the pending unpleasantness in Iraq. Although the authors are usually prone to the typical Gray Lady's editorializing and anti-Americanisms, this article actually seems informative and neutral, once one accepts the multilateralism-uber-alles Times mindset.

It will not matter substantively whether most of the nations bordering Iraq are with us or not. The use of airbases and naval facilities sufficient for the task can be secured by appropriate bribes (or threats to put them on the short list after we settle Saddam's hash) to these so-called nations. Aside from the immediacy of oil, the only two that matter for long-term strategic concerns are Iran and Turkey. Let's leave Iran alone; they're about to implode from the folly of 23 years of Islamofascism imposed on a people who have tasted a better life before 1979. Let's consider the most powerful of the lot, Turkey.

Turkey has been a long-term and faithful NATO partner, but has recently taken a worrisome turn by choosing the Justice and Development Party (AKP), headed by the Islamist Tayyip Erdogan (who is not eligible to hold public office owing to a sedition conviction). However, the good news is that Abdullah Gul, the party's choice for prime minister, appears committed to do what it takes to get into the European Union. See, for example, stories in the (Pakistani) website Dawn and Turkishpress.com. It is clear, at least from what is published, that PM Gul, AKP, and President Ahmet Necdet Sezer are all oriented towards Europe and not Riyadh. As a NATO ally, Turkey could certainly count on U.S. and probably British support if they were attacked by any residual Iraqi forces that didn't burn out their reverse gears scarpering away from U.S. and British forces.

Not that Turkey would actually need much assistance to deal with Iraq in any event. One note in the Times piece that rings true and sadly so is this: The Bush administration is trying to win Turkey's support by backing the country's application to join the European Union, offering financial aid and giving an assurance that Washington will not support the establishment of independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq.

Once again, the Kurds get the short end of the stick. Don't you just love international wheeling and dealing?